China has approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra, near the Indian border. This $137 billion project, touted as the world’s most ambitious infrastructure endeavor, has sparked concerns among downstream nations, including India and Bangladesh.
A Record-Breaking Undertaking
The dam will be constructed in a massive gorge where the river makes a dramatic U-turn to enter Arunachal Pradesh, India, before flowing into Bangladesh. Expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity annually, the dam will surpass the capacity of China’s Three Gorges Dam, currently the largest hydropower facility in the world. The electricity produced could meet the needs of 300 million people, underscoring its monumental scale and potential.
The project, part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and long-term development goals through 2035, aims to exploit the river’s massive hydropower resources. The Yarlung Zangbo River experiences a 2,000-meter vertical drop over just 50 kilometers, providing an unparalleled opportunity for energy generation.
According to Yan Zhiyong, former chairman of the Power Construction Corporation of China, the area’s potential exceeds 70 million kilowatts—more than three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam.
Geopolitical and Environmental Concerns
While China emphasizes the green credentials of the project, touting its contributions to carbon neutrality and climate change mitigation, the dam has raised alarm bells in India and Bangladesh. These nations rely heavily on the Brahmaputra’s water for agriculture, drinking water, and ecosystem balance.
Geopolitical Implications
India, in particular, is concerned about the potential for China to control the flow of the river. Such control could affect water availability downstream or even be used as a geopolitical tool during periods of tension. Moreover, the ability to release water suddenly could pose significant risks, including flooding in downstream regions.
Environmental and Seismic Risks
The project’s location on a tectonic plate boundary amplifies concerns about seismic activity. Constructing such a massive dam in an earthquake-prone region could have catastrophic consequences. However, Chinese authorities assert that they have conducted extensive geological surveys and implemented cutting-edge safety measures to mitigate these risks.
Economic and Strategic Gains for China
Chinese officials argue that the dam is a key national security initiative. Beyond providing clean energy, it will generate an estimated 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) annually for the Tibet Autonomous Region, bolstering local economic growth. The project also aligns with China’s strategy of integrating hydro, wind, and solar power to create a sustainable energy base.
Regional Cooperation and Unresolved Questions
India and China have established an Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) for discussions on trans-boundary rivers, focusing on data sharing and cooperative management. However, the scale of this dam raises questions about the adequacy of existing agreements and the future of regional collaboration.
Bangladesh, too, has expressed concerns about potential disruptions to water flow, which could affect millions of people living downstream. Experts advocate for a multilateral framework involving all stakeholders to ensure sustainable and equitable water management.
The Path Forward
China’s hydropower megaproject on the Brahmaputra River represents a monumental engineering feat with significant implications for energy, ecology, and geopolitics. While it offers promising benefits such as renewable energy and economic development, it also poses complex challenges for regional stability and environmental sustainability.
As the project progresses, fostering dialogue, transparency, and cooperation among China, India, and Bangladesh will be essential to mitigate risks and ensure shared benefits from the Brahmaputra’s vast resources.